Tuesday, June 27, 2017

The African century

Another couple years, another 80 million people added onto the latest UN estimates of Africa's population at the turn of the century and another 80 million removed from the European figure (amounting to a 13% decline in the estimated total population of Europe in 2100 compared to the estimate for 2100 that was made just two years ago--that's the entire population of Germany erased from the 2015 estimate in the most recent revision).

Consequently, an updated graph showing shares of global population by major geographical areas as they were in 2015 and as they are projected to be in 2100 follows:



Another upward revision or two in the African expectations and we'll be looking at a world where Africans outnumber Asians before some of those reading this bite the dust.

In 1950, Europeans made up 20% of the world's population. In 150 years--the time between Augustus and Antoninus Pius, when the Roman empire went from strength to more strength--it will have dropped to a mere 5%. And in 1950, the vast majority of those Europeans were, well, ancestrally European. In 2100, a significant number of those counted as "European" here will have roots on the continent that extend back just a few generations at most.

Sunday, June 25, 2017

General Social Survey shows 5% of non-citizens residing in the US illegally vote in presidential elections

Commenter Random Dude on the Internet turns a light bulb on in my head:
Looks like millions of illegal immigrants likely voted in the 2008 and 2012 elections. While the numbers for 2016 still aren't out yet, you have to imagine that for 2016, when amnesty is on the line, let alone the wall, there would be a surge of non-citizen voting for that election as well.

If up to 5.7 million non-citizens voted in 2016 like they did in 2008, Trump wins the popular vote and likely could flip a couple of states like Virginia, Nevada, and Minnesota. Maybe more states but definitely those could have flipped if it was only citizens who voted.

Here's hoping that Kobach is aggressive in his investigations and that his inevitable suggestions get implemented. 2020 could be horrendous for Democrats if voting was limited to US citizens only.
While I spend an inordinate amount of time mining the GSS, I still miss things. Big things, sometimes, and this is one of them.

In three iterations the survey has asked respondents if they are citizens or not. Across these three years, the survey has interviewed 188 non-citizen respondents. Nine of those 188 report having voted in a presidential election. That suggests that 5% of non-citizens residing in the US illegally vote in presidential elections.

Yes, the usual disclaimers about self-reported data and modest sample sizes apply, but presumably there are other non-citizens who have surreptitiously voted without being so upfront about it.

With non-citizen residents in the US comprising around 8% of the population, a 5% turnout rate up against a total turnout rate of 57% for the 2016 election gets us under 1% of all votes cast and so not enough to give the popular vote to Trump, but plausibly enough to flip New Hampshire and possibly even Somali-saturated Minnesota.

GSS variables used: PRES92, PRES00, PRES08, PRES12, CITIZEN

Color matters, contra Shapiro

Here's Ben Shapiro's silly assertion again:


In obliterating it as decisively as possible, the insinuation of data cherry-picking was made. That's fair enough. Since Shapiro's statement struck me as so self-evidently false, the intention was to quickly show it as such.

We won't have access to the 2016 presidential election results until the Spring of 2018, but we can look back at the last Christian white male vs Christian white male and bring in browns (sample sizes are too small for yellows, unfortunately) alongside blacks and whites to see if color, while mattering during Obama's presidency, did so rather uniquely or if this is something that has been with us for at least a generation.

The same issues previously considered among whites and blacks for the 2012 presidential election follow, this time for the 2004 presidential election and with the inclusion of Hispanics.

Among pro-life voters:


Those opposed to same-sex marriage:


Those opposed to income redistribution:


Those against drug legalization:


Those who think the government is too big and does too much:


Among self-identified political conservatives:


This methodology doesn't even take into account the fact that whites are more likely than non-whites to hold all of these ideological positions Shapiro is more sympathetic to in the first place. It's not just that while 38% of whites feel the government is too big and does too much only 15% of blacks and 18% of Hispanics feel the same way, it's that members of those relatively smaller proportions of the black and Hispanic populations who feel the same are less likely to vote for the party for whom that ideological position is included in its platform and thus foundational.

Color matters. It matters more now than before because the US--and the Western world in general--is less European now than it was before. Unless the demographic transformation is halted, it will continue to matter more and more as each day passes, until we get to the point Lee Kuan Yew would've predicted, a point where ideology is completely irrelevant because color is the only thing that matters.

GSS variables used: PRES04, HISPANIC(1)(2-50), RACECEN1(1)(2), POLVIEWS(5-6), MARHOMO(4-5), ABANY(2), EQWLTH(5-7), GRASS(2), HELPNOT(4-5)

Saturday, June 24, 2017

Prescribing proscriptions

I didn't initially comment on the gay play in the park because, while I have nothing but admiration for Laura Loomer jumping on stage and stating the obvious, I've an aversion to the Hitlery Hitlery Hitlery approach that made the world aware of what happened. The DemsRRealRacists approach has been tried for decades, has failed for decades, and will continue to fail for as long as it is tried.

Additionally, I've little to add that hadn't or wouldn't soon be written or spoken by people of greater talent. A week on, though, there are a few remarks I've yet to see made.

Even more obvious than the veracity of Loomer's assertions is how this production would be treated if the conspirators were all white men murdering a big-eared mulatto or a frumpy dyke in a pantsuit--stage burned, actors assailed, boycotts of corporate sponsors, justice department prosecutions, grovelling apologies, etc.

As it were, the senators who assassinate Trump are all black. Naturally so. After all, who isn't aware of a majority black population that has ever maintained, let alone built, a level of civilization on par with that of first century BC Rome?

Free speech by the right is interpreted as violence while violence by the left is interpreted as free speech.

This goes beyond cultural and political theater (heh). What happened following Caesar's assassination potentially has serious implications today. Those implications are lost on the vast majority of virtue-signalling charlatans who went to, celebrated, and sponsored the play, vanishingly few of whom have any historical knowledge beyond Lincoln freeing the slaves and Hitler killing the Jews.

- Within a couple years of the murder, many of the assassins were dead--the most famous ones at Philippi, others at the hands of fellow Romans complying with official orders.

- Trump, a controversial populist with fervent supporters but also legions of implacable enemies, was replaced by an actual authoritarian who politically neutered every opponent he didn't force feed an extra helping of iron to.

- The authoritarian who stepped in after Trump came from a background in which becoming princeps would've been unthinkable to the power structure of the day were it not for Trump's extrajudicial killing.

- The authoritarian who followed Trump came from a family with little power at the time. Trump's successor put into place a new ruling structure that lasted for a century.

- The pre-assassination establishment--those involved directly in the murder, those complicit in it, and those who merely cheered it on--had sat atop the political and cultural orders for centuries. After Trump expired under Pompey's statue, they lost their power forever. From that point on, all the way through the fall of the western empire nearly 500 years later, they would never regain it.

- The slain man's approval ratings were mediocre. His successor's were stellar.

- Trump was a libertine of his day, a serial philanderer who enjoyed grabbing the pussies of other men's wives. His successor, in contrast, decreed marriage laws that would make Ned Flanders blush.

- Trump was the first Roman ever to be deified. Do you really still need to ask where the "god-emperor" identifier comes from?

Beware the Ire of Deplorables.

Thursday, June 22, 2017

Are atheists addicted to socialism?

In a great discussion between two leading libertarian minds who forthrightly deal with immigration and the National Question--that is, they don't ignore HBD--Stefan Molyneux asserts a strong association between atheism and socialism:



Sure, we know about the Soviet Union, the Khmer Rouge, China, and North Korea, but how descriptive is it of the US today?

The GSS has, since its inception, asked respondents to rate on a 7-point scale whether or not "the government ought to reduce income differences" or "not concern itself with reducing income differences". The following graph shows the average response by theistic orientation (inverted from the survey for ease of comprehension). The higher the score the more socialistically inclined the group. To avoid racial confounding, only non-Hispanic whites are considered and for contemporary relevance all responses are from the year 2000 onward (n = 6,428):


One standard deviation is two full points, so while the relationship clearly exists, it's a relatively modest one. By comparison, the gap between atheists and firm believers is only one-fourth as wide as the chasm between self-described liberals and conservatives is.

GSS variables used: GOD(1)(2)(3-5)(6), EQWLTH, YEAR(2000-2016), RACECEN1(1), HISPANIC(1), POLVIEWS(1-2)(5-6)