Drawing from a
large Reuters-Ipsos polling sample (N = 24,487), the following graphs show, first, the percentages of Trump voters who say they will vote Democrat in the 2018 congressional mid-terms, and second, the percentages of Clinton voters who say they will vote Republican in the 2018 congressional mid-terms (both in a two-way race with those not intending to vote or to vote third-party are excluded):
A majority of Democrats who took a chance on Trump in 2016 are reclinating back home in 2018. A sizable number of independents are leaving, too, as are 1-in-8 young MAGAmen. In contrast, the Democrat line looks like it will hold:
For those who've long been accustomed to Republican chicanery, the Trump glass is XX% full--no new pointless and profligate wars (yet), some tough talk regarding sanctuary cities, Stephen Miller--heaven preserve him--!, the good riddance of a number of swamp creatures like Jeff Flake and Paul Ryan, etc.
But for the crossovers and the restless revolutionaries, the glass is XX[X?]% empty. We're
bombing Syria again, the wall remains 0% complete, Hillary Clinton walks free, nearly everyone who rode the Trump Train into the Imperial City has been run out on a rail (except for Stephen Miller--heaven preserve him), the budget deficit is growing faster than it did under Obama, the tough talk on trade remains little more than tough talk, on and on.
What do they have to celebrate? A tax cut for corporations, another
infinity-billion dollars for the military-industrial complex, and a resurrection of the bloodthirsty John Bolton.
Trump lost the popular vote by a couple of points and these results suggest the gap will double in size to four points in November without accounting for the motivational edge Democrats, as the party 'out of power', historically tend to benefit from.
Virginia in 2016 and then in 2017 is a pretty good blueprint for what 2018 will look like.
When the GOP took control of congress in 2010,
capturing a 49-seat majority in the House, the party won the popular vote
by eight points. A four point margin translates into about a 15-seat majority for Democrats next January.
If that comes to pass, Trump effectively becomes a lame duck. He's reduced to rule by executive order, with every EO hopelessly tied up in the courts. As we approach the 2020 presidential election the MAGA agenda remains stillborn and that's the end of the god-emperor.
As
Z-Man articulates brilliantly--this
ten-minute segment is stellar even by
Power Hour standards--it's time for Trump to flip over the tables. The president's instincts were to do this when the omnibus spending bill was put on his desk, but he balked.
No more. Trump needs to go back to being Trump. If he doesn't make a big course correction, and soon, it's not hard to see how this plays out.
Whatever happens in the next few months, Trump goes down as a pathfinder, a man who, at great personal cost, blew the Overton Window wide open and fatally harpooned the Republican elephant. The elephant hasn't collapsed yet,
but it will. There will be a lot of bleeding out in November. President Trump may have peaked, but Trumpism has not. Its ascent is just beginning.